Why Putin never would attack Germany - He wouldn’t even accept the country as a gift

Against this background, one is initially surprised that Putin chose the route of a direct message to the German people.

However, any reservations quickly disappear once you start reading. In addition to his fond memories of his stay in Germany and his warm personal relationships with GDR citizens from all walks of life, he emphasizes in the first part of his letter the excellent cultural, scientific and economic achievements of the Germans, which even the small, peace-loving GDR was capable of.

He substantiates this with a quote from the Encyclopaedia Britannica (1980 edition). In it, the German Democratic Republic with its 17 million inhabitants is listed as the seventh largest industrialized nation in the world.

In the second part of his letter, Putin addresses the story that, according to German warmongers, Germany will be attacked no later than 2030, and he explains very plausibly why Russia, even if it had more than enough resources to do so, would never attack Germany, let alone occupy it.

He has given a whole series of rationally accessible reasons for this, starting with the problem of transportation:

Problems in the German transport sector

• Well-functioning logistics plays a decisive role in any war, even a modern one. But according to Putin, Germany's transport sector and its infrastructure are on the verge of collapse and all of Russia does not have enough pioneer troops to get everything back in order.

• The infrastructure is outdated and dilapidated, with rails, bridges and stations in poor condition due to decades of underinvestment. The network already suffers from capacity bottlenecks, speed restrictions and frequent maintenance shutdowns, which exacerbates operational problems. How will this work when the Russian military needs to be served?

• In addition, totally congested roads and traffic jams are part of the daily picture of the dense motorway network. Germany suffers from heavy traffic, especially in the freight sector, which is particularly important for the military. Maintenance problems and a lack of upgrades put additional pressure on road capacity.

• And then there’s the shortage of local skilled labor. The transportation sector, especially logistics, is facing a severe shortage of workers, he said, citing official German figures. By 2023, Germany will be short of at least 70,000 truck drivers, a figure that is expected to rise and affect the reliability of freight transport. All of this means that Russia would have to fix Germany’s infrastructure before Putin could even think about a functioning crew. “No, thank you! We are not interested in economic aid for Germany!”

Economic problems

Germany's economic future also makes it an unattractive target for military conquest. In his letter, Putin refers to the following factors:

• An ageing workforce and labour shortages, a shrinking workforce due to low birth rates and an ageing society putting pressure on the labour market, with 183 occupations reportedly facing shortages.

• High energy costs, with green energy policies already contributing significantly to Germany’s deindustrialization. About a third of manufacturers are now considering moving production abroad. Even if the Russians had German industry in their sights, which they don’t, most and the best of it would have been abroad long before Russian tanks had touched down in Berlin.

• Against this background, Germany is sitting on a dying branch and Putin reminds us in his letter that Russia has focused very successfully on the emerging economies of Asia over the past three years and sees no reason to burden itself economically and militarily with the conquest of a country in decline.

Social problems

As an occupying power, Russia should also solve Germany's social problems. And they are there:

• Poverty among retirees: About 3.2 million retirees are facing poverty, raising concerns about the sustainability of the social security system, which absorbs 25 to 30 percent of GDP.

• Social inequality: There are still gaps in income, health and educational outcomes, especially among low-income groups and people with a migrant background.

• Housing shortage: A severe lack of affordable housing, especially in urban areas, exacerbates social tensions and integration problems.

• Population ageing: An increasingly older population increases the need for services, while the workforce that supports those services is shrinking.

  
  

Educational problems

Moreover, the former nation of supposed “poets and thinkers” now also has enormous educational problems:

• Integration of migrants: The education system struggles to meet the needs of diverse learners, especially immigrant children, leading to unequal outcomes.

• Teacher shortage: A lack of qualified teachers affects school performance and exacerbates regional disparities.

• Early segregation: Germany's system of sorting students into vocational or academic paths at an early age exacerbates social inequality.

• Lack of daycare: Hundreds of thousands of daycare places are lacking, hampering the education of young children and the employment of parents.

Migration problems

• Integration issues: High immigration (18% of the population born abroad) puts a strain on housing, education and social services, with uneven integration success.

• Asylum pressure: Germany receives the most asylum seekers in the EU (334,000 applications in 2023) and 1.2 million Ukrainians, overstretching local resources.

• Public backlash: Incidents involving migrants have fueled pro-migrant sentiment and overwhelmed political measures such as border controls.

• Demand for skilled workers: The economic demand for 400,000 skilled immigrants per year collides with restrictive asylum policies and bureaucratic hurdles.

Health system problems

• Staff shortages: An aging population and retiring doctors (47,000 unfilled vacancies in health care from mid-2023 to mid-2024) are putting pressure on the system, despite its reliance on 14 percent of foreign health workers.

• Inequitable access: Immigrants and low-income groups face barriers to care, including language and cultural barriers.

• Rising costs: An older population increases the need for health care and puts a strain on the finances of the insurance-based system.

• Rural gaps: Thousands of doctor's offices are closing, especially in rural areas, reducing access to primary health care.

  
  

All these problems are interconnected: Economic stagnation fuels social discontent, political polarization influences migration policies, and underfunded systems impact both education and health care, further exacerbating already existing tensions in society that will sooner or later explode.

All these problems – Putin concludes his letter of April 1 – should be proof enough for the Germans that Russia would not even accept their country, once one of the best in the world but now a gigantic burden, as a gift, let alone send a single soldier into the fire for it. Finally, Putin gives us a good advice: instead of financing the armament and militarization of society, the Germans’ money and efforts should go to solving the above-mentioned problems, which they largely caused themselves.