-Note that this is my personal opinion and NOT an analysis. For “professional” analyses we have enough “armchair generals”, bloggers and vloggers.
The west and NATO are still convinced that Putin wants to conquer the whole of Ukraine and that he was defeated when trying to capture Kiev.
When will they open their eyes and admit that Putin only wants to keep the parts of Ukraine where Russians and Russian speaking people live. The parts where the Russian population were and still are discriminated, by the Ukrainian government.
These parts, like the Donetsk region, Kharkiv and Crimea are all situated in the eastern part of Ukraine.
Then there is the myth that Putin failed to capture the capital Kiev. Kiev has a population of 3.0M and it is impossible to capture a metropolis this size without carpet bombing and without a tremendous number of casualties. It would mean house to house fighting in unknown territory.
The allies did it in WWII with the German capital Berlin. On March 18, 1945 the US Eighth Air Force used 1,221 bombers and carpet bombed the city, killing thousands of civilians. The exact number is unknown because Berlin hosted thousands of refugees, fleeing for the Russian troops, too.
When did we see this happen in Kiev?
The Ukrainian Clown Prince is well aware of this. That’s why he can run around in his army green T-shirt without bullet proof vest.
That’s why he’s still able to welcome his guests in Kiev and that’s why politicians can fly in and out without fear of being killed by Russian snipers or being surprised by Russian bombers. Turkish president Erdogan needs at least 250 bodyguards.
Yes, the Clown Prince, very good at acting and public relations, even orders to switch on the air raid sirens a few minutes after arrival of his guests.
Overwhelming Russian military force
While Ukraine threw everything they have into the battle, app. 450,000 troops, the Russians fight with their peace time strength forces, app. 25% or 200,000 troops.
The general ratio, when you think in terms of organic units, is about 2.5:1 to 3:1. So the general ratio of 'combat' soldiers is about 35% of an army. This means that only 70,000 Russian troops are actually involved in real combat.
In an armored battalion of 35 tanks a support mobile company, the number of fighters is about 150, while the total body count is around 400-500. An infantry battalion counts 500-1,000 troops. The 'extras' are not redundant in any sense. They include logistics, communications, liaison, medics, field maintenance, ammunition and sundry stuff.
While Russia’s armed forces today are far smaller than those of the Soviet era, conventional military capabilities are now at their highest since the Russian armed forces were formed in 1992.
From 2010, sustained investment has supported an equipment-modernization program across all services, even if some military arms have benefited more than others. Structural reforms were also pursued as part of the 'New Look' program, launched towards the end of 2008, to improve performance.
Taken together, these now provide Moscow with conventional armed forces at a far higher level of readiness than previously, which can be rapidly deployed. While the west still underscores their capabilities, the Russian government is willing to use those “ill functioning” capabilities when its interests are threatened.
How long can Russia keep up the fight
For many years now, the US and Europe no longer have the type of industrial base required to fight a large scale "conventional" war.
Even during the days of the Cold War during the 1980's, the US seemed hesitant to maintain more than a 30 day stockpile of ammunition - they seemed to feel that even if the worst case scenario of a Warsaw Pact invasion of Germany and Western Europe did occur, that the issue would be decided one way or the other, or end in nuclear hellfire, long before that 30 days worth of ammo was used up.
During the First Gulf War in 1990/91, the US had its munitions factories running full tilt 24/7, for months before even the air campaign kicked off, to stockpile enough munitions to meet what they anticipated they would need, once actual combat operations started.
And in subsequent decades, the situation has gotten even worse, with even more of the industrial base being "offshored" for the sake of profit, and nebulous environmental concerns.
When Russia started with reorganizing and reforming their armed forces, the industrial installations kept up with those. This way keeping full stock with equipment and ammunition, so the armed forces never ran out of the necessary tools, in case of an armed conflict.
Russia is waging a war in Ukraine for more than four months now without showing signs of shortage of any.
The west keeps promising to donate the Ukrainian Clown Prince whatever equipment he needs, but industrial installations can’t keep up without causing a shortage to their own troops.
Poland donated more than 200 old Russian T-72 tanks to Ukraine while Germany promised to replace them with modern German tanks. Poland is still waiting.
The Dutch and Germans deployed their complete air defense systems to the Czech Republic, while leaving their own countries defenseless.
The US industrial installations cannot even keep up with producing Javelins for their own forces, while the Clown Prince requested 1,000 pieces of them.
The Germans cannot even build tanks for their own troops while promising the Clown Prince he could order whatever he needed in Germany.
So the worst case scenario, with allied troops deployed in Ukraine fighting Russian troops, doesn't look too well. Supply of equipment and ammunition would only last three weeks and while the west would never admit a defeat, Doomsday, with the west using nuclear arms might become harsh reality.
Commenti